Engr Haseeb Ahsan

 

1.       INTRODUCTION

              The literature on conflict over the water resources between the riparian reveals that water has potential for violent and social conflicts but what is less clear is that at what level this conflict take place. With growing concerns that climate change and increasing population would undermine water resources and ultimately lead to more water conflicts. Many water experts, hydrologists, political leaders and climatologist have evaluated the risks of water wars with reference to historical evidence. In 1991, UN secretary general Boutross Ghalli observed that next wars will be fought over waters, not politics. In 1995, Ismail Serageldin, the first chairperson of the Global Water Partnership warned “If wars of this century were fought over oil, the wars of the next century will be fought over water unless we change our approach to manage this precious and vital resource. Water is a strategic resource that has to be protected and valued. Control over the water resources, use of water as a political tool, its relationship with socio-economic development and threat of terrorist using it both as a target and tool are quite relevant to the India-Pakistan context.

 

2.       DRIVERS OF INDUS WATER TREATY

              Water emerged as major fault line between Pakistan and India as partition of British India in 1947 divided the Indus basin system. After partition, India emerged as upper riparian with control over the canal headworks and Pakistan was left as the water short lower riparian. Two important headworks, Ferozpur on Sutlej and Madhupur on Ravi that supplied water to Central Bari Doab Canal (CBDC) and Dipalpur canal and feed about 1.7 MA in Pakistan, were awarded to India. This gave India physical capacity to stop water supplies to Pakistan. Against this backdrop, the chief engineer of Pakistan and India met and signed a “Standstill Agreement” on 20 December 1947, providing water allocation at Ferozpur and Madhupur headworks until 31 March 1948. On April 1, 1948 India stopped water supplies to CBDC canal and Dipalpur canal from Ferozepur headworks. The canal supplies were resumed after five weeks after strong protest by Pakistan but not before India had asserted his claim over the waters of rivers Ravi, Sutlej and Beas. This resulted in the serious water dispute which dragged both the countries to the brink of war. The situation was handled by World Bank who played the role of mediator and agreed both countries to sign Indus Water Treaty.

 

3.       INDUS WATER TREATY 1960

              India and Pakistan signed the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) in 1960 that divided the rivers of Indus Basin system between the two countries. India gained full control over the three eastern rivers Ravi, Beas and Sutlej under carefully specified conditions to tap the considerable hydropower potential before they entered Pakistan, while Pakistan was given exclusive rights on the western rivers Indus, Jhelum and Chenab with minor exception, for existing uses in Kashmir. The treaty is often cited as model settling water sharing conflicts in an international river basin. It has survived major wars and many ups and downs. Despite surviving after 3 wars, the treaty of Indus is a good answer for those who question its sustainability. But on the other hand, some are worried that the water dependence could turn into water war.

 

4.       PRINCIPAL OF WATER SHARING IN THE LIGHT OF IWT

              IWT tried to find solution based on water engineering and economics instead of legal principles. The treaty instead of dividing the water of the rivers, divided the six rivers between India and Pakistan and gave the parties independent control. However, each country was allowed certain uses in the rivers allocated to other as detail below

·       Pakistan was given exclusive rights on western rivers, subject to receive unrestricted flows. However, India was allowed to use 1.3 MAF for irrigation purposes. This implies that India can irrigate crop area of 13,43,477 acers using water of Western Rivers. So, for it has been irrigating only 7,92,426 acres. In addition to this, it was allowed to use water of western rivers for certain storage of 3.6 MAF including general storage, power storage and flood storage.

·       All the waters of Eastern Rivers shall be available for India. However, treaty permits Pakistan to take water for domestic, non-consumptive and certain limited agriculture use for 45,500 acres from tributaries of Ravi- Basantar, Bein, Tarnah and Ujh.

The treaty allowed for a transitional period of 10 to 13 years. During this period, Pakistan constructed a system of replacement works consisting of two dams, six barrages and nine link canals to transfer 14 MAF of water from the Western Rivers.

 

5.       INDIAN PERSPECTIVE REGARDING IWT

              India’s narrative on water dispute with Pakistan is that reduced flow of water into Pakistan from time to time is not the result of any violation of IWT by India or any action on its part to divert river flows or to use more water than assigned share of water from the Western Rivers. Instead, any drop in flow is due to mismanagement of water resources, less storage facility, huge 30 MAF of water flowing every year unutilized into the Arabian Sea and overall pattern of receding glacier and climate change. India wants Pakistan to look inwards to address its water issues and improve its water management.

 

6.       INDIA’S CONTROVERSIAL DAMS AND THEIR IMPACTS ON PAKISTAN

Although IWT allows India to tap hydropower potential of the Chenab and Jhelum before these rivers enter Pakistan but with certain condition that this use of hydropower should not affect the quantity and natural timing of those flows. Now the question comes whether Indian projects, either planned or under constructed on the western rivers are in compliance with provisions of IWT which are meant to protect Pakistan’s water rights in the downstream.

Dispute between neighboring countries started from the construction of Salal dam in 1978 which was settled amicably but controversy on Wuller Barrage/Tulbul Navigation project and Kishanganga project remains unsettled. The Baglihar dam issue was settled by neutral expert. During the 117th meeting of the Permanent Indus Commission, held between the officials of both countries in Islamabad in the first week of March 2022, Pakistan expressed its serious concern on India’s new run-of-the-river small hydroelectric projects on western rivers, special focus was given to the Kiru hydroelectric project (HEP), Pakal Dul and Lower Kalnai, which could potentially deprive it of its water share in future.

The detail of some key projects with corresponding apprehensions from Pakistan’s side is tabulated below

 

SR NO	NAME OF PROJECT	RIVER	STATUS	PAKISTAN’S APPREHENSION
1	Salal Dam (690 MW)	Chenab River	Completed	With storage capacity of 230,303 acre feet, Dam would enable India either to Interrupt the natural flow of water or to flood the Punjab in Pakistan.
2	Baglihar Dam (900 MW)	Chenab River	completed	With gross storage capacity of 321,002 acre feet, India seized 200.000 cusecs of water during first filling of Baglihar dam from 19 August to 5 September which resulted in severe damage to Kharif crop. The dam is of such a large size that India whenever it wants can block 7000 to 8000 cusecs of water per day.
3	Dul Hasti Dam (780 MW)	Chenab River	Completed	1 or 2 days of stoppage of water at Marala headworks during lean months
4	Rattle Project (850 MW)	Chenab River	Under construction	With storage capacity of 63,812 acre feet, It may reduce 40% flows of Chenab river at head Marala which will be disastrous for irrigation in Punjab and Sindh province of Pakistan
5	Uri-1 (480 MW) & Uri-11 (240 MW)	Jhelum River	Completed	With storage capacity of 292 acre feet, it can effect the both quantity and timing of natural flows which is violation of IWT
6	Kishanganga Dam (330 MW)	Jhelum River	Under Construction	27% reduction in flows of Neelum River which may leave significant portion of Mangla dam’s storage capacity unutilized and 20% (100 MW) reduction in power generation capacity of NJHP along with ecological disaster for the downstream area
7	Wullar Barrage/Tulbul Navigation Project	Jhelum River	Planned	Barrage would convert the natural lake into man made storage of 0.324 MAF
8	Nimo Bazgo (45MW)	Indus River	completed	Gross storage capacity of 42,814 acre feet can result in stoppage of water downstream for 14 days.

 

7.       CUMULATIVE IMPACT OF THE INDIAN PROJECT

India claims that run of the river projects would have no downstream impacts but the fact is that these projects have many typical structures such as dams, weir, headrace, tailraces and diversion tunnels which can have serious impacts by disturbing the downstream river flows as witnessed during Baglihar dam case. Some run of the river projects diverts the water into the tunnels leaving downstream section dry and thus may cause even more severe impacts downstream. Furthermore, often projects with pondage to store water are wrongly classified as run of the river projects. The attitude and action during the past decades clearly showed that violation of the Indus Basin Treaty was in line with India’s national policy of backtracking on its pledges and breaking international agreements and defying the UN. India had seized 70% water of Chenab and Jhelum as a result of which 0.9 million acres of land, being irrigated from Marala headworks is now presenting the view of Thar and cholistan desert. In addition to this, Pakistan’s water experts have established that all planned and under construction projects by India on western rivers may block 43 MCM of water from flowing to Pakistan. It seems India intends to complete its water denial plan to Pakistan in future after which Pakistan would be deprived of its share of water. Pakistan’s condition will become worse than Somalia and Ethiopia and if India opens the gates of the illegally built dams, it could sink Pakistan within 48 hours, believe water experts.

 

8.       CONCLUSIONS

              Under prevailing situation of climate change and water scarcity/insecurity both in India and Pakistan along with ecological threats to Indus basin river system, the Indus Water Treat has come under severe stress which has led to an intense water debate between the two rivals and may result in water wars and abrogation of treaty.

              If India kept on sabotaging the spirit of IWT with same pace, it might get full control on western river and will use water as strategic tool to suppress Pakistan in coming future.

 

9.       WAY FORWARD

              Under growing water stress on the Indus water system, both countries should observe the true letter and spirit of treaty and take steps to ensure effective functioning of the Indus water regime by following these steps,

·       Transparency in sharing of flow data through installation of telemetry system

·       Timely data sharing of new Indian projects

·       Joint watershed management and joint commissioning of environmental studies

·       Cooperation in ensuring quality of water bodies

·       Strengthening the functioning of Indus water commission

·       Internal management of water resources and sharing of best practices.